Thursday 29 March 2012

Why is Liverpool's League form so bad and how can it be improved?

Five defeats in six League matches; even interspersed with triumph in the Carling Cup and progress in the FA Cup, that statistic is unacceptable. Liverpool are seventh in the League, which is worrying considering that is one position lower than where we finished last season.

Perhaps even more frightening, is the fact that the Reds' form is that of relegation candidates, not challengers for the top four. Three points from a possible 18 leaves Liverpool 19th in the form table, with only the doomed Wolverhampton Wanderers suffering a worse streak of form.

Many in the media, and some in the stands, are turning on manager Kenny Dalglish as a result. Ludicrously, King Kenny has been compared to Roy Hodgson, simultaneously ignoring both the former's Cup success, and the transformation his return brought to the club last season, and the latter's abysmal record while in the Anfield dugout.

Moreover, it musn't be forgotten that the squad Dalglish inherited from Hodgson was hardly top four material and a major part of Dalglish's job has been removing the deadwood signed by his predecessor, including the likes of Paul Konchesky and Christian Poulsen, who were both signed for ridiculous fees.

Consequently his gross spend on players has been quite high (over £100 million). However, his net expenditure has been relatively modest (£40 million) and £30 million has been trimmed from the annual wage bill, suggesting that Liverpool are on secure financial ground under new owners FSG. Also, that money has been spent wisely on promising young players who should mature and flourish under the guidance of Dalglish, Comolli and Clarke at Anfield.

Undoubtedly the main reason for Liverpool's current woes in the League is a failure to convert the chances that have been created. The Reds' chance conversion rate is 10% lower than the Premier League average and their top scorer, Luis Suarez, has only found the back of the net eight times; a measly figure compared to the 26 netted by Van Persie, the 21 scored by Rooney and even the 14 bagged by Blackburn's Yakubu.

Andy Carroll's poor form and lack of goals have often been blamed for the Merseysiders' lack of a cutting edge, however the stats paint a remarkably different picture. When the number 9 has started the Reds have picked up an average two points per game at a 59% win percentage. Without the tall Geordie in the starting eleven, Liverpool have a win percentage of just 39% and have collected 0.5 fewer points.

The solution is not, as some have suggested, cutting our losses and selling Carroll in the summer, but rather starting him more often and giving him greater opportunities to forge a fruitful partnership with Suarez.

More goals are also required from midfield if Liverpool are to improve their form in front of goal. Currently, only Steven Gerrard looks likely to burst forward from deep and score, and he's been plagued with injures throughout this campaign. On the right of midfield both Maxi and Kuyt are ageing and lacking form, while Henderson hasn't impressed. We need to sign a genuine winger in the summer to replace Henderson on the right wing. On the left, Downing has been slowly improving, although he is yet to justify his £20 million transfer fee.

When Gerrard, Suarez and Carroll start together Liverpool have had a 100% win percentage. Clearly, that triumvirate needs to be encouraged and strengthened and the heart of our attack must be based around them. Signing a clinical striker is also crucial both to complement the current striking set-up and add quality to the squad, as well as introducing an element of healthy competition that could bring out the best in others.

The pressure on Dalglish to succeed has been immense. It is expected of those who work at Liverpool to be the best and hence the legendary Scot has picked strong starting line-ups in the cup competitions and effort has been directed towards progression in the Carling and FA Cup in order to prove that he can still hack it in the upper echelons of football management, perhaps at the expense of League form.

History seems to suggest that improved showings in the League come a season after impressive cup runs. For example, after clinching the historic treble of Worthington Cup, FA Cup and UEFA Cup in 2000/2001, the Reds went on to finish as runners-up in the League a season later. Furthermore, after lifting the Champions League at the end of his first season in charge, Rafael Benitez then improved his side's League performance by a whopping 24 points in the following campaign.

Changes in League form are an intrinsic feature of football. Just ask Spurs, who have fallen from title contenders to struggling to remain in the top four, and Arsenal, whose League form has improved dramatically (the Gunners have won six out of six) despite dropping out of all cup competitions at the early stages.

Kenny Dalglish has earned up enormous amounts of credit with the supporters and the boardroom and deserves time to turn Liverpool's League form around.

In time, I’m sure he'll succeed.

YNWA

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